Details
NEW MARKET RESEARCH REPORT FROM PAUMANOK ON CAPEX IN MLCC for FY 2019: ANALYZING THE MARKET GAPS (Keywords: Capacitor, shortage, MLCC, capacity expansion in units by manufacturer; understanding the technology gaps in X5R and X7R high capacitance MLCC).
Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction: 12
CAPEX IN MLCC: ANALYZING THE MARKET GAPS 12
1.1 Capacity Expansion In The Global Ceramic Capacitor Industry: Calendar-Year 2018-2019 12
1.1 (A)Why the 2018 Market Environment Resembles the 2007 UpCycle- so Will Capex: 13
1.1(A1) How We Compared The 2007 Upcycle and Capex To The 2000 Upcyle Back in 2007 13
1.1 (B) How We Compare The 2018 Upcycle and Capex To The 2007 Upcycle: 13
1.1 (A2) When The Market Goes South… 14
1.2 Expansion Strategy Analysis: 14
1.2 (A) ROI Equations Over Time Show Yields Lower Over Time 14
1.2 (B) Regional Expansion Analysis: 14
1.2 (C ) Supply Chain Analysis: Materials Availability: 15
1.2 (D) High Cap Versus Low Cap Revenue Analysis: 15
1.2 (E) Market Share Analysis: Maintenance and Roadmaps: 16
1.2 (F) Where Capacity Expansion Is Expected: MLCC Dielectric Chemistry: 16
1.2 (F1) X5R High Capacitance MLCC 16
1.2 (F2) Y5V High Capacitance MLCC 16
1.2 (F3) X7R High Capacitance MLCC 17
1.2 (F4) Gas Stabalized Furnace Vendors: 17
1.2 (G) Integration and Modularization Markets Outlook- 17
2.0 Executive Summary: Conclusions Of The Report: MLCC:
2.1 Capacity Expansion In The Global MLCC Industry: Calendar-Year 2018-2019 Estimates By Manufacturer: 19
2.2 Capacity Expansion In The Global MLCC Industry: 2018 Versus 2007 Comparison 21
2.3Capacity Expansion In The Global Ceramic Capacitor Industry: 2018 Vs. 2007 vs. 2000 22
2.4 Capacity Expansion Comparative Analysis: 2018, 2007, 2000 Upcycles 23
2.5 Forecasted MLCC Yield Ratios: 2018 25
2.6 Forecasted MLCC Yield Ratios In Prior Years 25
2.7 Factory Starts and Shipments of MLCC Bodies: CY 2018 26
2.8 Factory Starts and Shipments of MLCC Bodies In Prior Market Studies 26
2.9 Actual Consumption of MLCC: CY 2018 26
2.10 Actual Consumption of MLCC In Prior Upcyle Years 26
2.11 Forecasted Inventory Build For MLCC: 2018-2019 26
2.12 Forecasted Inventory Build For MLCC In Prior Upcycles 27
2.13 Justification For Capacity Expansion: FY 2018 27
2.14 Justification For Capacity Expansion In Prior Up-Cycles: 27
2.15 Reasons For Caution In 2018 28
2.16 Reasons For Caution In Prior UpCycles (What Came True): 28
3.0 MLCC Capacity Expansion Estimates By Manufacturer: 2018-2019: 29
3.1 Murata Manufacturing Limited (RIC: 6981) 29
3.1.1 MLCC Shipment Value, Volume, and Average Unit Pricing 29
3.1.2 Annual Revenues for Murata’s Capacitor Group: 2009-2018 29
3.1.3 Quarterly Revenues For MURATA: 2014-2018 {Capacitor Operations Only} 30
3.1.4 Expansion Strategy Analysis 31
3.1.5 Regional Expansion Analysis (Japan HIGH CAP MLCC Supply Chain) 32
3.1.6 Supply Chain Analysis 32
3.1.7 Materials Vendors Who Will Benefit From Murata’s Expansion 32
3.1.8 Competition 32
3. TDK Corporation (RIC: 6762) 33
3.2.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 33
3.2..2 MLCC Revenue Growth: 2009-2018 33
3.3 Yageo Corporation (TW 2327) 36
3.3.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 36
3.3.2 Yageo Average Price Trend: 36
3.3.3 Revenue Analysis to 2018: 36
3.3.4 Quarterly Estimates and Outlook For Yageo Corporation 38
3.3.5 Regional Expansion Analysis (China) 39
3.3.6 Competition 39
3.3.7 ChipR Strategy Applied To MLCC 39
3.3..8 Ceramic Chip Capacitors: Technological Competitiveness 39
3.4 Kyocera/AVX Corporation (RIC 6971: NYSE: AVX) 39
3.4.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 39
3.4.2 Quarterly Revenues For AVX Corporation: 2014-2018 by Quarter 41
3.4.3 MLCC 42
3.4.4 Kyocera/AVX Ceramic Chip Capacitors: Maximum Capacitance By Dielectric 42
3.4.5 AVX Public Statements in 2018 on MLCC and Ta205 Caspex 42
3.5 Walsin Technology Coprporation 42
3.5.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 42
3.5.2 Annual Revenues For Walsin Technology Corporation (Passives Group): 2009-2018 43
3.6 Samsung Electro-Mechanical (KSE: 009150) 44
3.6.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 44
3.6.2 Efficiency Expansion At SEMCO 44
3.6.3 Competition 44
3.6.4 Annual Revenues For SEMCO LCR Group: FY 2009-2018 44
3.6.5 Quarterly Revenues For SEMCO LCR GROUP: FY 2012-2018 (Won in Billions) MLCC 45
3.6.6 FY 2018 SEMCO MLCC Financial Assessment 45
3.7 Taiyo Yuden Corporation (RIC: 6976) 46
3.7.1 Expansion Strategy Analysis 46
3.7.2 Capacity Expansion Since 1999 46
3.7.3 Reasons For 2006-2007 Expansion 46
3.7.4 Supply Chain Analysis 47
3.7.5 Ceramic Chip Capacitors: Technological Competitiveness 47
3.7.6 Ceramic Capacitor Portfolio (Nickel Versus Palladium) 47
3.7.8 Taiyo Yuden Ceramic Chip Capacitors: Maximum Capacitance By Dielectric 47
3.7.9 Annual Revenues for Taiyo Yuden’s Capacitor Group: FY 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 47
3.7.10 Quarterly Revenues For Taiyo Yuden Capacitors Group: 2015-2018 49
4.0 Comparing Prior Parts Shortages: 2005, 2013 and 2018… 50
4.1 Technology Assessment of The High Capacitance X5R MLCC Market Segment: 2005, 2013, 2018 Comparisons of The Roadmap: 50
4.2 X5R MLCC Market Impacted By Acquisitions and Slow Adoption of Technology: 2005-2013-2018 51
4.3 Technology Assessment of The High Capacitance X7R MLCC Market Segment: 2005, 2013, 2018 Comparisons of The Roadmap: 53
4.4 X7R MLCC Market Impacted By Lack of Investment in High Capacitance Variations: 2005-2013-2018 54
4.5 High Capacitance MLCC Lead Times in April 2018: 55
4.5.1 High Capacitance MLCC Lead Time Trends: January 2013- April 2018 56
4.6 Summary and Conclusions: Advances 57
4.7 MLCC Shortages Are Creating Challenges In Multiple End-Markets in 2018 57
4.7.1 Limited Capacity To Stack Ceramic Dielectric Will Extend MLCC Shortages To 2020 and beyond. 57
4.7.2 Strategies for Managing Short Supply Scenarios- 58
4.7.3 The Ultra-Small Case Size Content 58
4.7.4 MLCC Content in Apple Phone and Tesla EV Migration 59
4.7.4 Capacitance Requirements per Person: 60
4.7.5 Capacitance Requirement Trends Per Person: 61
4.7.6 Where The Bottleneck In The MLCC Supply Chain Exists and What Customers are Doing to Overcome It- 62
4.7.7 Increasing Capacitance While Decreasing Case Size Trends 64
4.7.8 Who is Getting MLCC Support? 65
4.7.9 Technology Hurdles Keep Competition Minimal, Customers Have Limited Transparency, Think All MLCC Are The Same 66
4.7.10 Why The Shortage of MLCC May Last 5 Years: 67
4.7.11 Applications of Nano-Technology Into MLCC Technology Advancement Can Take Up To 90 Months {BOX- JENKINS ANALYSIS} 68
4.7.12 How MLCC Shortages Might Impact Demand For Other Dielectrics: FY 2019-2023 68
4.7.13 Forecasted Global Shift in MLCC Revenues for FY 2018: 70
4.7.14 Forecasted Growth Rate for MLCC in FY 2018 Compared to Other Dielectrics: 70
4.7.15 Forecasted Global Shift in MLCC Revenues for FY 2022: 71
4.7.16 MLCC: Shifts in Raw Materials Pricing FY 2017- FY 2018 73
4.7.17 MLCC Forecasted Revenues For The Top Six MLCC Manufacturers: FY 2018 75
4.7.18 Murata Manufacturing Revenue Forecast For Capacitors For FY 2018: 76
4.7.19 SEMCO Revenue Forecast For Capacitors For FY 2018 76
4.7.20 TDK Corporation Revenue Forecast For Capacitors For FY 2018 77
4.7.21 Taiyo Yuden Revenue Forecast for Capacitors for FY 2018 77
4.7.22 Yageo Corporation Forecasts for FY 2018 77
4.7.23 Walsin Technology Corporation Forecasts for FY 2018 78
4.7.24 Expected Shift in FY 2018 Market Shares in Global MLCC Industry 78
5.0 MLCC Technology Overview: 79
5.1 The Two Technical Economic Maxims Associated with Multilayered aCeramic Chip Capacitors MLCC: 79
5.2 Ubiquitous Nature of MLCC: 79
5.3 Relationship Between Capacitance and Available Surface Area in MLCC: 80
5.4 MLCC Materials and Construction: 81
5.5 The Multilayered Ceramic and Metal Design: 81
5.6 MLCC Case Sizes: 83
5.7 MLCC Metallization: 84
5.7.1 Palladium Electrodes: 84
5.7.2 Nickel Electrodes: 85
5.7.3 Copper Electrodes: 85
5.7.4 Termination Materials: 85
5.7.5 Ceramic Dielectric Materials: 85
5.8 Ceramic Capacitor Performance Classes: 86
5.8.1 Class I Ceramics (NPO/COG): 87
5.8.2 Class II Ceramics (X7R/Z5U/Y5V): 88
5.8.3 Z5U (BZ) Capacitors: 89
5.8.4 Y5V Capacitors: 90
5.8.5 Class III Ceramics: 90
5.9 Reasons for Revenue Growth in The Global MLCC Market: 27 Year Analysis: 92
5.10 Changes In MLCC Market Volume Over Time: 27 Year Market Assessment: 92
5.11 Unit Sales Forecasts for MLCC for FY 2018: 92
5.12 Reasons for Unit Expansion In The Global MLCC Market Over Time: 93
5.13 Global Average Unit Selling Price for MLCC: 27 Year Market Assessment 94
5.14 FY 2018 Update on MLCC Pricing: 94
5.15 Reason for Changes in Average Unit Selling Price for MLCC Over Time: 94
5.16 Regions and Countries: 96
5.16.1 MLCC Consumption By World Region: FY 2017 and FY 2018 Outlook 96
5.16.2 Shifts in Global Consumption By World Region Over Time: 12 Year Analysis 96
5.16.3 FY 2018 Update on Regional Sales Data: 97
5.16.4 China and Asia-12 Year Trend Analysis for MLCC Consumption 99
5.16.5 Japan-12 Year Trend Analysis for MLCC Consumption 99
5.16.6 Europe-12 Year Trend Analysis for MLCC Consumption 99
5.16.7 Americas-12 Year Trend Analysis for MLCC Consumption 99
5.16.8 Benchmarking: Capacitor Revenues By Major Vendor and World Region: FY 2017 100
5.17 End-Markets: 100
5.17.1 MLCC Consumption By End-Use Market: Forecasting Demand is Key To Successful Capex-FY 2018 100
5.17.2 Wireless Handset Markets: 12 Year Analysis for MLCC Consumption: 102
5.17.3 Computer & Peripherals: 12 Year Analysis for MLCC Consumption: 102
5.17.4 Consumer AV: 12 Year Analysis for MLCC Consumption: 102
5.17.5 Automotive: 12 Year Analysis for MLCC Consumption: 103
5.17.6 Industrial & Specialty: 12 Year Analysis for MLCC Consumption: 103
5.17.7 Capacitor Ceramic Capacitor Consumption Value By End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017 104
5.17.8 Benchmarking: Capacitor Sales By End-Use Market Segment For The Top Vendors of Capacitors: FY 2017 104
5.18 Market Shares: 108
5.18.1 MLCC: Market Shares: 2017-2018 108
5.18.2 12-Year Shift in Global Market Shares in Ceramic Capacitors: 109
5.18.3 MLCC: Market Dominance Over Alternative Technologies: 110
5.18.4 MLCC Shipment Volume: 2017 110
5.18.5 MLCC Ten Year Market Volume Growth Analysis 111
5.18.6 MLCC Shipment Value: 2017 113
5.18.7 MLCC Ten Year Market Value Growth Analysis 113
5.18.8 MLCC Average Unit Pricing: 2017 115
5.18.9 MLCC Ten Year Pricing Analysis: 115
5.19 Performance 115
5.19.1 Performance Characteristic (X5R, X7R,Y5V, NPO, Additional Variations) 115
5.19.1 (A) X5R Capacitor Markets: 2017 116
5.19.1 (B) X7R Capacitor Markets: 2017 116
5.19.1 (C ) NPO Capacitor Markets: 2017 116
5.19.1 (D) Y5V Capacitor Markets: 2017 116
5.19.1 (E) Other Capacitor Markets With Respect To Performance: 2017 117
5.20 Case Sizes: 119
5.20.1 MLCC Demand By Case Size: Dielectrics In Motion: 119
5.20.2 Unit Demand By MLCC Case Size: 2017 Worldwide Estimates 119
5.21 MLCC Leads Way in Passive Component Volumetric Efficiency: 122
5.21.1 MLCC Sets The Tone for The Technology Roadmap in Ultra-Small Next Generation Components: 122
5.22 Ultra-Small Passives: A Multibillion Industry 124
5.22.1 Global Markets By Case Size: 124
5.22.2 The Leading Edge Markets- 01005 and 008004: 124
5.22.3 The Core Value Markets- 0201 to 0805 124
5.23 Increasing Capacitance While Decreasing Case Size 126
5.23.1 MLCC and Tantalum- Major Competition Amoung Solid Dielectrics 126
5.24 MLCC Markets: Summary and Conclusion: 128
6.0 Forecasts: 129
6.1 Forecasts For MLCC: 2017-2022 129
6.2 Forecasts: Global Volume of Consumption for MLCC: 2017-2022 129
6.4 Forecasts: Global Value of Consumption for MLCC: 2017-2022 131
6.5 Why FY 2019 Is The Problem Year 133
6.6 Forecasts: Global Average Unit Pricing for MLCC: 2017-2022 133
6.7 Forecasts: Global Value of Consumption for MLCC By World Region: 2017-2022 135
6.7.1 China and SE Asia: 2017-2022: Forecasted Shifts in MLCC Consumption 135
6.7.2 Japan: 2017-2022: Forecasted Shifts in MLCC Consumption 135
6.7,3 Europe: 2017-2022: Forecasted Shifts in MLCC Consumption 135
6.7.4 Americas: 2017-2022: Forecasted Shifts in MLCC Consumption 136
6.8 Forecasts: Global Value of Consumption for MLCC By End-Use Market Segment: 2017-2022 137
6.8.1 Market Forecasts For Capacitor Consumption In The Wireless Handset Market Segment: 2017-2022: 137
6.8,2 Market Forecasts For Capacitor Consumption In The Computer & Business Machine Segment: 2017-2022: 138
6.8.3 Market Forecasts For Capacitor Consumption In The Consumer AV Segment: 2017-2022: 138
6.8.4 Market Forecasts For Capacitor Consumption In The Automotive Segment: 2017-2022: 138
6.8.5 Market Forecasts For MLCC Consumption In The Industrial and Specialty Segment: 2017-2022 138
6.9 Unit Forecasts For MLCC By End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017-2022 140
6.10 MLCC Content By End-Product and Forecasts: FY 2017-FY 2022 142
6.11 MLCC Unit Consumption Forecasts By End-Use Market Segment and Key Product Market: FY 2017-2022 144
7.0 Producer Profiles: Top MLCC Vendors: 2018 145
Murata 145
Murata Manufacturing Company Limited (RIC: 6981): 145
About Murata: 145
Annual Revenues for Murata’s Capacitor Group: 2009-2017 146
FY 2018 Forecasted Sales for MLCC at Murata: 147
Murata Revenues By End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017 Forecasts 148
SEMCO 150
Samsung Electro-Mechanical (KSE: 009150): 150
About SEMCO: 150
Annual Revenues For SEMCO LCR Group: FY 2016, 2017 and 2018 Forecasts 150
151
Samsung’s Position in The Passive Component Industry: FY 2017 151
Taiyo Yuden 153
Taiyo Yuden Company Limited (RIC: 6976): 153
About Taiyo Yuden Company Limited 153
Annual Revenues In Taiyo Yuden’s Capacitor Group: 2016, 2017 and FY 2018 Forecasts 153
Taiyo Yuden’s Position in the Global MLCC Industry 154
TDK 156
TDK Corporation (RIC: 6762): 156
About TDK Corporation: 156
TDK-End-Use Market Demand Update: 156
Annual Revenues for TDK’s Capacitor Group: 2016, 2017 and FY 2018 Forecast 156
TDK’s Position in The Passive Component Industry: FY 2017: 157
Walsin 158
Walsin Technology Corporation (2492): 158
About WTC: 158
Walsin Technology Corp; Revenues by End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017 160
Annual Revenues For Walsin Technology Corporation (Passives Group): 2016, 2017 and 2018 Forecasts 161
Walsin’s Position In The Global Passive Component Industry: 162
Yageo 162
Yageo Corporation (TW 2327): 162
About Yageo: 162
Annual Revenues For Yageo Corporation: 2016, 2017 and FY 2018: 163
Yageo’s Position in The Passive Component Industry: 163
Table of Figures:
Figure 1: Capacity Expansion In The Global MLCC Industry: 2018-2019 Paumanok Estimates By Manufacturer 20
Figure 3: MLCC UNit Capacity Increase in %, 2018 Compared To 2007 Compared to 2000 23
Figure 4: Added Capacity in Global MLCC Production: 2018, 2007, 2000 Comparisons 24
Figure 5: MURATA MFG CO LTD CAPACITOR GROUP: Annual Revenues: FY 2009-2017- FY 2018 Forecasts 30
Figure 6: MURATA MFG CO LTD CAPACITOR GROUP; Quarterly Revenues: 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 31
Figure 7: TDK Corporation; Capacitor Group: Annual Revenues: 2009-2018 34
Figure 8: TDK Corporation; Capacitor Group: Quarterly Revenues: 2012-2018 35
Figure 9: Yageo Corporation: Annual Revenues: 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 37
Figure 10: Yageo Corporation: Quarterly Revenues: 2014-2017; 2018 Forecasts 38
Figure 11: AVX Corporation: Annual Revenues: 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 40
Figure 12: AVX Corporation: Quarterly Revenues: 2014-2018 Quarterly Revenues 41
Figure 13: Walsin Technology Corporation; Passive Components: Annual Revenues: 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 43
Figure 14: Samsung Electro-Mechanics: LCR Group; Annual Revenues: 2009-2015; 2018 Forecasts 45
Figure 15: Taiyo Yuden: Capacitor Group; Annual Sales 2009-2017; 2018 Forecasts 48
Figure 16: Taiyo Yuden; Capacitor Group; Quarterly Revenues: 2014-2017:2018 Forecasts 49
Figure 17: Increasing Capacitance While Decreasing Case Size in MLCC- Strategies for Maximum Profits 64
Figure 18: Market Drivers for Ultra-Small Passive Components: FY 2017-2022 65
Figure 19: Limited Competition in X5R 0603 and 0805 MLCC Case Sizes 66
Figure 21: FORECASTS: Global Value of Consumption for MLCC: 2017-2022 (In Millions of US Dollars) 72
Figure 22: Average Price For Key Metals Consumed in MLCC: By Month: 2013-2017 Through November 74
Figure 23: MLCC Manufacturers: FY 2017 and FY 2018 Estimated Market Shares Globally 78
Figure 24: 25 Year Market Analysis: Global Market Consumption Value For MLCC: 1990-2017 91
Figure 25: 27 Year Market Analysis: Global Market Consumption Volume For MLCC: 1990-2017 93
Figure 26: 27 Year Market Analysis: Global MLCC Pricing: 1990-2017 95
Figure 27: Ceramic Capacitor Consumption Value by World Region: 12 Year Analysis 96
Figure 28: Global Value of Demand For MLCC By World Region; FY 2017 (In Millions of USD) 98
Figure 29: Capacitor Revenues BY Vendor and World Region: FY 2017 100
Figure 30: Operating Margins and Value-Added Ceramic Capacitor Markets: FY 2018 101
Figure 31: Global Consumption Value for Ceramic Capacitors By End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017 104
Figure 32: Revenues By End-Use Market Segment For The World's Top Capacitor Manufacturers: FY 2017 Estimates 106
Figure 33: Ceramic Capacitor Manufacturers: FY 2017 Market Shares 109
Figure 34: Global Consumption Volume for High Capacitance MLCC: 2017 and Ten Year Transitional Analysis 112
Figure 35: Global Consumption Value for High Capacitance MLCC: 2017 and Ten- Year Transitional Analysis 114
Figure 36: Global Ceramic Capacitor Consumption Value by Performance Characteristic: 2017 118
Figure 37: MLCC Demand By Case Size in Units 2017 120
Figure 40: MLCC Leads Way in Passive Component Volumetric Efficiency 123
Figure 41: Ultra-Small Passives: A $15 Billion Industry 125
Figure 42: Increasing Capacitance While Decreasing Case Size 127
Figure 43: FORECASTS: Global Volume of Consumption for MLCC: 2017-2022 (In Billions of Pieces) 130
Figure 44: FORECASTS: Global Value of Consumption for MLCC: 2017-2022 (In Millions of US Dollars) 132
Figure 45: FORECASTS: Global Average Unit Pricing for MLCC: 2017-2022 (In US Dollars Per Thousand Pieces) 134
Figure 46: FORECASTS: Global Value of Consumption For MLCC By World Region: 2017-2022 (In Millions of US Dollars) 137
Figure 47: FORECASTS: Global Value of Consumption For MLCC By End-Use Market Segment: 2017-2022 (In Millions of US Dollars) 139
Figure 48: Projected Production VOLUME for Key END-PRODUCTS Consuming Capacitors, Resistors and Inductors (Top 16 End-Products) To 2022 141
Figure 49: Average Passive Component Content Per Black Box By Type: FY 2011-2017 Actual and FY 2017 to FY 2022 Forecasts 143
Figure 50: MLCC Consumption Volume Forecasts: FY 2017 to FY 2022 144
Figure 51: MURATA MFG CO LTD CAPACITOR GROUP: Annual Revenues: 2009-2017 147
Figure 52: MURATA MFG CO LTD CAPACITOR GROUP; Revenue Forecasts for FY 2018 for Capacitors Group 148
Figure 53: Murata Annual Revenues by End-Use Market Segment: FY 2017 149
Figure 54: Samsung Electro-Mechanics: LCR Group; Annual Revenues: 2016, 2017, 2018 Forecasts 150
Figure 55: Quarterly Revenues in Taiyo Yuden's Capacitor Group: FY 2016, 2017 and FY 2018 Forecasts 154
Figure 56: TDK Corporation; Capacitor Group: Annual Revenues: 2016, 2017 and FY 2018 Forecasts 157
Figure 57: Walsin Technology Corporation; Passive Components: Annual Revenues: FY 2016, 2017 and FY 2018 Forecasts 161
Figure 58: Yageo Corporation: Annual Revenues: 2009-2015; 2017 Forecasts 163