Passive Electronic Components: Monthly Market Research Report: January 2016 Edition

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Global Market Developments in Passive Components: JANUARY 2016

RAW MATERIAL UPDATE
The Passive Component Raw Material Index (which covers feedstock pricing for many of the primary raw materials consumed in the production of passive electronic components) showed a significant decline of 13.33% in November 2015 on a month to month basis then STABILIZED and increased slightly by 0.23% for the month of December 2015; but has lost an additional 2.72% in January 2016 . Primary sources say that this is based upon the slowdown in forecasted metals consumption in China for CY 2016. FOR JANUARY 2016, nickel, copper, aluminum and zinc prices all declined, as did palladium, tantalite, silver and crude oil. From the high point of September 2014 to January 2016 the passive component raw material index has lost 43% of its price value. This bodes well for profitability in the electronic materials supply chain, but it also signifies weakness in other economic sectors that also consume these raw materials and that suggests a weak overall economy worldwide.

Base metal raw material prices showed an decrease in December of 2.3% on a month-to-month basis, after a plunge of 13.5% in November- when all product lines dropped substantially in price. This was of great concern to us and largely blamed on a reassessment of Chinese metals consumption in the coming year. All base metals continued their price decline as is shown in the chart above.

Precious and rare metal prices DECREASED again by a large 12.2% in January on a month to month basis following A WHOPPING 20.9% in NOVEMBER 2015. Palladium prices dropped to a new low of $488 USD per Troy Ounce for January 2016- considering it was $883 in August of 2014. Ruthenium, tantalite, silver and especially crude oil are all very low in price now.
 
COMPONENT MARKET UPDATE: MARCH 2016 QUARTERLY FORECAST
In January 2016 we have maintained our forecast for a global quarter-to-quarter rate of decline for December 2015 quarter at 0.1% in US dollar value worldwide; followed by a new forecast of a decline of 2.1% in passive component demand in US dollars for the March 2016 quarter. The primary impact on the global passive component industry in 2015 and 2016 is the weakened yen to dollar ratio and the rapidity which the rates change. Growth in yen was subsequently remarkable, but sales in US dollars was weak and showed no or anemic growth as a result. An unusual global economy. In 2016 we see the beginning of the impact of higher US interest rates impacting the global market, which yen values expected to appreciate slightly in response, and creating a market decline in value, while increasing demand in volume.

The model is that for March 2016 that higher interest rates in the United States will cause yen appreciation, resulting in higher prices for passive components and lower unit volumes. This we believe caused the increase in distributor purchases of resistors in the previous quarter.

CAPACITOR LEAD TIMES JANUARY 2016
In this the January 2016 report demand for capacitors remained steady state and unchanged in the month following weakness in the market in December; however two products- the molded chip tantalum capacitors and the DC Film chip capacitors showed tightening lead times and increased unit demand; most certainly coming from the IOT market to support high capacitance in a small footprint and power filtering for the screen backlighting. We still perceive the capacitor unit markets to remain tightened and that currency valuations remain the largest continued threat to return on investment in the component industry in FY 2016 and FY 2017.

RESISTOR LEAD TIMES JANUARY 2016
In January 2016, which is equally as odd, is a slowdown in demand for resistor networks and thin film chips. The unusual disruption in the sensitive supply chain for resistors noted in the November 2015 market, repeated itself in December 2015, especially for the 0805 and 1206 thick film chip resistors and have maintained their higher level of demand in January 2016. The only explanation anyone can give is a replenishment of resistors by major distributors The market is recoiling from the purchases made in the fourth quarter of 2015.

INDUCTOR LEAD TIMES JANUARY 2016
Lead times for discrete inductors remained at their elevated levels for the month of January 2016; December and November 2015 and October 2015, after showing increases in lead times for August and September 2015 on a month-to-month basis. Inductor demand remains solid and under new scrutiny for use in automobile cockpit electronics and new designated frequencies.

Passive Electronic Components: Monthly Market Research Report: January 2016 Edition

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This is a 32 page market briefing on the status of the global passive electronic components industry, with month-to-month analysis of changes in the market with respect to component lead times, unit shipments, pricing, value shipments, revenues by manufacturer, quarterly forecasts, changes in the marketplace and the raw material index covering multiple types of feed stock materials consumed by the passive component industry.
Table of Contents Passive Electronic Components: Monthly Market Research Report: January 2016 Edition Executive Summary Capacitor Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 Ceramic Capacitor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 Tantalum Capacitor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 Plastic Film Capacitor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 Linear Resistor Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Thick Film Chip Resistor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Axial and Radial Resistor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Resistor Network Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Thin Film Resistor Lead Times by Sub-category: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Inductor Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Ferrite Bead Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Axial and Radial Leaded Inductor Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month Chip Coil Inductor Lead Times: January 2013- January 2016 by Month World Market Update, Value, Volume and Pricing Trends by Current Quarter and Next Quarterly Outlook Vendors and Their Financial Performance (Top 11 Global Producers): Revenues by Current Quarter and Next Quarter Outlook Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts (Yen, Won, NT$, US Dollar) Raw Material Pricing Index and Trends Base Metal Pricing Trends and Directions (Nickel, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc) Precious and Rare Metal Pricing and Directions (Tantalum, Ruthenium, Palladium, Silver) This report includes the 12 month annual review.